备件规划库存控制专栏

Here is my simplified decision making process on planning -

Step 1: Start with FACTS: Have I run the numbers (or done the analysis)?  

Example: Run consumption history; ask internal/external customers for FCST; use certain distribution to simulate the demand.

            If we haven't run numbers, how do we know if we are stocking too much or not enough?

Step 2: Know the impact

How much cash I am going to spend (assuming I am spending my own money)? Keep in mind it is easy to turn cash into inventory; it is difficult to do the opposite.

What I am going to get in service level (assuming I am the customer AND stockholder)?

Step 3: End with JUDGMENT: Can I explain it?

            Formulas or planning tools can give us all kinds of proposals, good or bad. Their proposals are only as good as assumptions they use.

In planning world, many times our assumptions don't necessarily hold.

            It is people who make the judgment. That's where we add great value to the organization.

            So end with judgment and be able to explain to ourselves why we make certain planning decisions.

规划员："这个料要备三个，请批准"。

规划经理："为什么要备三个"（而不是四个或者两个，或者一个）？

规划员："客服工程师说要三个"。

我在备件规划领域这么些年，这是经常遇到的，也是最不喜欢遇到的对话。

俗话说，女怕嫁错郎，男怕入错行。对公司来说，怕的就是排错了队，将未来绑在二流客户上，最终这些二流客户变为三流、四流、末流，直至被淘汰出局，如同泰坦尼克号一样沉没。倾巢之下，没有完卵，供应商便成了殉葬品。

 就半导体行业来说，二流的客户大多在北美和欧洲。如果时光倒退10年，这些公司大都是一流客户。只因为社会福利太好，生活太安逸，员工从上到下都成了慵懒的肥猫，公司也成了贵族公司。显然，员工与公司失去了饥饿感，就失去了竞争力，于是就被亚洲的公司打得满地找牙。结果一流的变二流，二流变三流甚至破产倒闭。欧洲第二大半导体生产上Qimonda就是例子。